Egypt's chilling echoes of June 4 for Beijing

The similarities are too obvious to be ignored - the images of tanks and thousands of protesters battling police on Egyptian streets serve as a vivid reminder of the pro-democracy demonstrations in Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989 that were crushed in a bloody crackdown. Beijing has apparently taken note, with media coverage of the uprising against President Hosni Mubarak, one of China's closest global partners, heavily censored and online discussions blocked. One cannot help but wonder what message the so-called Jasmine Revolution, which has swept across Tunisia and Egypt and is now spreading east fast, sends for China. 'The uprisings in Egypt, of course, make people think of China in 1989,' said Professor Perry Link, a Sinologist at the University of California at Riverside. He added that the Egyptian regime - at least so far - had been much more restrained than the Chinese government. Many mainland and overseas analysts agree that any spill-over effect for China is likely to be limited, given its robust economic growth. But others say the Egyptian riots come as a wake-up call to Beijing on how unpredictable public anger can be and how authoritarian regimes can crumble at any moment. Professor Roderick MacFarquhar, a China specialist at Harvard University, said: 'The Chinese government is sensitive about any authoritarian government being overthrown, communist or non-communist, because it is a bad example for its own people. The government is aware that it has all those problems and that these mirror Egypt's.' Aziz Nafa, an Algerian economist who has studied Sino-Arab relations, said China was comparable with Egypt and Tunisia in terms of political systems. 'Tunisia had a total suppression of individual and collective liberties of the people and Mubarak closed all doors to democracy in Egypt,' he said, adding that China was largely a politically closed society. Beijing-based political scientist Liu Junning also said the uprising in Egypt showed authoritarian regimes were a lot more vulnerable and fragile than they appeared. 'It is unbelievable to imagine that autocracies controlled by political strongmen can easily become unstable and be overthrown almost overnight,' he said. Both the Chinese and Egyptian regimes have maintained monopolies on political power, repressive control over their people in exchange for social stability and have been plagued by rampant corruption and injustice. But Beijing appears to have excelled economically - and that might make all the difference, analysts say. 'The difference is, of course, that the Chinese authorities can point to three decades of spectacular growth, which Mubarak can't, which have presumably made millions on the coast less inclined to be revolutionary,' MacFarquhar said. Beijing-based analyst Hu Xingdou said that although China was confronted by as many social and economic woes as Egypt and Tunisia, the Communist Party's ability to maintain steady growth had secured its grip on power. 'China's stability and the legitimacy of communist rule have largely been built upon its rapid economic growth, which has won tacit approval from the public despite surging disputes and tensions over illicit land seizure, a yawning wealth gap and the lack of checks and balances,' he said. 'Chinese people have become increasingly indifferent and tolerant and they are unlikely to participate in street protests like Egyptians and Tunisians.' Parvez Sharma, an Indian-born US pundit on Egyptian and Iranian affairs, said: 'China has created a vibrant economy and a tremendous amount of opportunity, it seems, for many Chinese. Mubarak never learnt how to provide for his people.' Analysts say that another strong message from the Egyptian uprising, which Beijing leaders might be studying closely in private - as they did when the Soviet Union fell some 20 years ago - was that they must heed public concerns and push ahead with long-stalled political reform. Hu said the risks involved of not making substantial progress in political reform were getting higher and higher. 'If the economy slows down or even crashes, China is very likely to see turmoil again with widespread discontent with the government,' he said. Yuan Weishi , a historian at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, also warned of the dire consequences of ignoring calls for political reform. 'The mainland public now have strong awareness of their rights and they can never return to the old days when they were subject to manipulation and had no rights to voice their criticism,' he said. Dr Kerry Brown, a senior fellow with London-based international policy think-tank Chatham House, pointed out several other key differences between China and Egypt and Tunisia, apart from the economic factor. There were heavier religious influences in Arab countries, he said, and public anger targeting specific leaders - Mubarak in Egypt and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia's toppled president - rather than political parties. 'But I think it shows just how oddly insecure the Communist Party is, despite its huge economic success in the last few years, and how it sees potential problems almost everywhere, even when the parallels are far less apparent than people might think,' he said.