The June 23 Legislative Council vote on the government's constitutional reform package is shaping up to be a no-win situation for Hong Kong's pan-democrats.
Neither supporting the package nor voting against it in Legco will do much to further democracy. Supporting it without extracting significant concessions from the government may reduce support for the democrats among their core followers. If the package fails to pass, the government will blame the democrats for the lack of political progress.
Hong Kong's democrats are trying hard to win concessions from Beijing and the local government before the vote. But these efforts are unlikely to meet with much success. One has to be realistic. Barring a democratic revolution on the mainland, it will be decades before Hong Kong enjoys full democracy. Everyone who is not idealistic or jaded by government propaganda can see this.
Instead of pouring all of their energy into what is almost certainly a losing battle to bring about significant movement towards democracy in the next decade, the democrats could instead demand concessions from the government in unrelated areas that are of immediate and pressing concern for the people of Hong Kong.
For example, the democrats could agree to give the government one vote for its reform package in exchange for adopting the World Health Organisation's strictest air-quality guidelines and for adopting a robust target for reducing the city's carbon emissions. Without this concession, the government is likely to adopt very weak air-quality and energy standards, meaning more air pollution and worsening public health.
The democrats could give the government another vote if it agrees to mandate an adequate minimum wage - certainly well above HK$30 per hour - and overtime pay for Hong Kong's workers. The government might be given one more vote if it agrees to a luxury tax on extravagant purchases, such as fancy cars, boats and expensive jewellery, with the proceeds earmarked for social welfare groups aiding Hong Kong's poor.