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China at front of the queue for Russia's oil

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Russia's first oil pipeline to Asia is snaking its way eastwards across the Siberian wilderness, raising hopes among China, Japan and other major Asian importers that they will soon have access to reliable oil from a near neighbour.

Nikolai Tokarev, head of the Russian state-owned company Transneft which is building the pipeline to the Pacific, said recently that the first stage would open by the end of the year. It will stretch 2,757km from Taishet in East Siberia, to Skovorodino in the Amur region near the border with China, and initially carry 600,000 barrels of oil per day.

The second stage will run another 2,100km, from Skovorodino to the port of Kozmino on Russia's Pacific coast. Due to be finished by 2014, the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean Pipeline (Espo) will have a capacity to transport 1.6 million barrels of oil per day - nearly half of China's oil imports in 2006 and about a quarter of its projected imports in 2014.

But, even as the first stage nears completion, there are major doubts about the project. Already a year behind schedule, construction is beset by rising costs, contractors unable to deliver on time or at all because of economic turmoil in Russia, and concerns about the venture's economic viability following the collapse in oil prices.

China and Russia are due to resume negotiations this month on a loans-for-oil deal that could have a critical impact not just on the pipeline's future but also on Sino-Russian relations. If a deal is struck, the strategic partnership forged by China and Russia to counterbalance the US and Europe will be reinforced by a long-term energy supply bond.

Russia, the world's second-biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, will be able to sell large amounts of oil to Asia as well as Europe, providing a boost to production from new fields in East Siberia and underpinning its role as a global energy power.

By clinching an oil deal with Moscow, Beijing would pave the way for similar long-term supplies of natural gas by pipeline from Russia. This would help China reduce its heavy dependence on coal and cut pollution.

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