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Central banks fail to hit mark

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Central banks across the world are failing to accurately forecast inflation rates - often by a wide margin - as the boom in commodity prices puts inflationary pressure on developed and developing countries alike.

But for many the question is 'why?' Surely if keeping inflation range-bound is such a hallmark of modern monetary policy for central banks they should have seen this coming?

There are several reasons why banks are blindsided, says Philippe Schindler, an investment specialist with Swiss private bank Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie.

'A big issue is the understanding by central banks of what inflation really is, and there is some strong controversy surrounding this,' Mr Schindler says.

The United States Federal Reserve, for example, focuses on core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs. And, while the US does not practise strict inflation targets, it does unofficially use an inflation range.

The issue, Mr Schindler says, is that rising commodity prices have been a major contributing factor to the current inflationary cycle - a factor that core inflation does not measure. US inflation figures for July were the highest in 17 years, at 5.6 per cent.

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