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Second guessing

Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
Hagai M. Segal

As numerous international actors struggle to find a resolution to the growing standoff with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, increasing efforts are being made to discover one vital thing - the Islamic republic's actual intentions.

Discerning Iran's precise nuclear policy has become a matter of paramount importance, not just for Israel and the United States, but for China, Russia, the European Union, the UN and Nato. If Tehran will stop at nothing to develop a nuclear bomb, then a major international crisis looms; if not, then tensions could lower surprisingly quickly.

Penetrating the murky world of Iranian national decision-making and definitively identifying the regime's intentions are, however, notoriously difficult, and this poses significant challenges to these international players.

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Rather than being a single-minded, cohesive regime, Iran's diverse leadership is regularly divided over key policies. Some figures seek self-imposed isolation, others advocate challenging the US, moderate Sunni Arab regimes and Israel. Still others advocate more pragmatic engagement with the west.

Yet, who falls into which camp does not fit western stereotypes - some of the isolationists, as well as some 'moderates', are among those who advocate developing a nuclear bomb, while some clerics have publicly stated that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's dogmatic stance on the issue is harming Iranian interests.

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Mr Ahmadinejad, seen in the west as totally in tune with the state's hugely influential militant ayatollahs, has in fact annoyed leading clerics with his aggressive public pronouncements and for social reforms similar to those introduced by previous, reformist-orientated presidents.

There is also little to suggest, contrary to widely held assumptions, that Iran has an apocalyptic agenda. While there is little doubt, for example, that over the long term Tehran seeks Israel's dissolution or destruction, as a sovereign state it is interested in continuing to exist and strengthening its regional and global standing. Thus, it has no interest in a nuclear conflict that would certainly result in its destruction, too.

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