THE shock defeat of the political reform bills sponsored by the coalition Government led by Japanese Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa does not necessarily mean the bills are now dead.
But his seven-party coalition certainly stands politically diminished as a result of the defeat and will probably break up, if Mr Hosokawa is forced by events to call a snap general election.
It is also likely that events may now hasten the day when the two major political parties which have dominated Japanese politics since 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Socialist Party begin to disintegrate.
The 130 to 118 margin in the upper House of Councillors against the four political reform bills, which would drastically change the Japanese electoral system, was larger than expected. Crucially, more Socialists members of the coalition crossed the floorto vote against the bills than LDP members crossing the floor in the reverse direction to vote for them.
There are two ways now left open to the coalition if it is to get the legislation passed. One way would be to return the four bills to the lower House of Representatives. Under Article 59 (2) of the constitution the bills would become law if passed againthere by a two-thirds majority.
But there seems little likelihood that the coalition, which only has a small majority and which is further rent by yesterday's Socialist defections, would be able to radically increase its majority to this extent.
The other way would be to set up a special Joint Committee of the two Houses, under Article 59 (3) of the constitution, empowered to work out a compromise. The committee would have to pass whatever compromise legislation was agreed by a two-thirds majority. Then the bills would go back to both Houses for passage by simple majorities.