If the headlines in Britain last week are to be believed, the UK is now al-Qaeda's No1 target: IRA-style cells are being set up in preparation for a major terror campaign across the country. These 'revelations' rightly highlight a genuine set of threats facing Britain, and Europe at large, from Islamist extremist elements. But they have also demonstrated the continued misunderstanding by many of the true nature of al-Qaeda - and the hysteria that often permeates public debate on the subject.
British authorities believe al-Qaeda is operating a cell structure in the country - as the Irish Republican Army did for decades - according to media reports. The bombings of July 7 last year were the beginning of the network's targeting of Britain. Al-Qaeda presents a greater threat than ever before, according to anonymous officials.
Authorities are investigating 30 possible terror plots, and have identified 1,500 suspects, according to newspaper reports. As a result, the national threat level has been raised from 'severe' to 'critical'.
University campuses are said to be of particular concern as recruiting grounds for extremist groups.
Yet, the headlines are exaggerating the risk. The existence of such cells tell us that al-Qaeda is increasingly lacking resources, and hiding in the shadows from the scrutiny of the world's counter-intelligence community. As a consequence, they are capable of carrying out only modest attacks: they are increasingly unable to plan or mount operations anywhere near the scale of 9/11. Successful attacks are rarer, and smaller - killing fewer and fewer people.
Comparisons with the IRA and its aims and structure are thus both unhelpful and misleading. The IRA was motivated by a geographical political agenda - Ireland. Al-Qaeda is driven by extremist theology, and has no specific geographic imperative. The IRA was rooted in an indigenous community with significant levels of public support and sympathy; al-Qaeda has no such base in Britain or Europe.