A new round of trade talks could add the equivalent of another China to the world economy and lift hundreds of millions out of extreme poverty. Brazil alone would gain a quarter of a million new jobs.
But, despite the obvious gains for everyone, the ministerial talks in Hong Kong this week - an effort to make headway on the Doha Development Round - are in trouble. Agriculture is the issue, as always. Rich countries spend US$1 billion a day in subsidies, which devour half of the European Union's budget.
Europe has offered its biggest cuts yet, but these are seen as not enough. Leaders and trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region recently made calls for progress that read well in the newspapers, but what do they mean? The declarations, made by the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, are not binding. They are vague enough to be acceptable by those members who are reluctant to change agricultural policies substantially - such as Japan and South Korea - and offer little.
The Apec free-trade region was supposed to be established for developed countries in 2010 and poor nations by 2020. But there is not a chance of this happening. Apec was supposed to be WTO-compatible - levering its reforms into a global deal. But the opposite is happening. Leaders talk grandly of the World Trade Organisation and the Doha Round, then go into small huddles to advance bilateral and subregional deals. I'd be doing the same if I were a minister or leader.
But let's remind ourselves that, in the Asia-Pacific region, all roads lead to China. Everyone wants to do a deal with China, the United States and Japan - although the US has now conceded failure in reaching a new agreement in the Americas.
All these regional and bilateral deals actually distort trade, create new barriers, exemptions, privileges, rules and conditions that raise prices and will cause political tension in the future. No regional or bilateral deal has ever handled agriculture fairly or established an open, binding dispute-settlement system. It's the small and poor who will again be cut out. Who wants to do a deal with Malawi, Papua New Guinea or Bolivia? Regionalism expands in direct relationship to the lack of progress at the WTO.