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Bonnie Glaser

The presidents of China and the United States will hold a summit next week at an important juncture in Sino-US relations. Even as Washington and Beijing have improved co-operation on critical security issues such as the 'war on terror' and North Korea - and established new dialogue mechanisms to address the growing complexity of their relationship - strategic distrust has persisted and, in some ways, intensified.

Beijing suspects that the United States will attempt to slow or block China's rise to great-power status. Washington's strengthening of ties with several of China's neighbours, including  Japan,  India and Vietnam, are perceived  as aimed at least in part at checking Beijing. Mainland researchers view US policies promoting democracy in Central Asia as aimed at destabilising China's minority regions.

Anxiety about US policy towards Taiwan has abated, but could resurface.  Continuing US arms sales to Taiwan and the deepening  defence relationship serve as proof to Beijing that the US opposes reunification.

America's growing angst about China is even more profound. To some extent the mainland has been a scapegoat. Americans wrongly blame the Chinese for taking away jobs and driving up the price of oil.

Underlying these accusations, however, is mounting uncertainty and anxiety about how China's rise will affect the US -  at home and  abroad. Americans see China amassing greater economic, political and military clout and are unsure to what ends Beijing will use its growing influence and power. This uncertainty extends to officials in the Bush administration. The US and China began to address some of these strategic issues in the Senior Dialogue between Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick  and Deputy Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo , launched last month. But the discussion of crucial questions, such as how the US and China view each other and their respective roles in the 21st century, is too important to be delegated entirely to senior bureaucrats. The two presidents, George W. Bush and Hu Jintao , should seize the opportunity  to engage in a candid conversation on these issues and find ways to allay each other's strategic mistrust.

Mr Hu's planned public speeches  at Yale University and in Washington will provide an occasion to reassure Americans about what kind of power China aspires to be. Hopefully, Mr Hu will not dismiss  apprehensions about China's rise  as  the 'China threat theory', as is often alleged in the Chinese media. Uncertainty about China's policies as it ascends is understandable, and Mr Hu should acknowledge this.

Mindful of the dangers of  strategic rivalry, the two leaders should also seek to head off antagonistic competition in the energy sector, and explore ways to advance shared  interests in keeping oil prices stable  and developing new sources of energy.

Failure to address head-on the growing suspicions that the US and China have about each other's strategic intentions will be costly. The need for mutual strategic reassurance is pressing, to avert a continued drift towards an adversarial relationship.

Bonnie Glaser is a senior associate at the Pacific Forum CSIS

Distributed by Pacific Forum CSIS



Chance to ease the mutual mistrust