Naked politics
The referendum scheduled for March 20 in Taiwan is attracting even more attention than the presidential election the same day. Overseas, a number of countries, including the United States, France and Japan, have raised questions about the wisdom or the necessity of holding the referendum. Within Taiwan, the opposition claims that the holding of a referendum is illegal, and Lien Chan, the Kuomintang's presidential candidate, announced last Saturday that he would boycott it.
Indeed, it is hard to see the referendum as anything more than a ploy by the incumbent, Chen Shui-bian, to garner more votes for himself. Mr Chen's original idea was to ask the electorate if they want Beijing to dismantle the nearly 500 missiles on the mainland targeted at Taiwan. However, after the US objected, he changed it. Now, voters are going to be asked if they support spending more on defence if the mainland refuses to dismantle its missiles.
US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage pointed out that a referendum is usually held to resolve a divisive and difficult problem. However, he said, the one proposed in Taiwan is neither divisive nor difficult, and so 'raises questions about the motives of those who want to put it forward'.
Mr Chen's motivation has become more and more transparent since he has now all but admitted that the referendum will be virtually irrelevant to the government's plans to acquire defensive weapons. That is because Taiwan Defence Minister Tang Yiau-min has said that a Patriot anti-missile battery procurement plan will be implemented in 2005, even if the public votes against spending more.
The president, asked in a radio interview why it was necessary to hold a referendum if the government had already made a decision on the issue, responded that strengthening Taiwan's defence was not limited to missile purchases. Apparently, then, voters are being asked if they think the government should spend more in unnamed areas.
In fact, Mr Chen and his cabinet have reaffirmed that the government will honour its commitment to spend US$15.1 billion to procure arms from the US, even if the public votes down the referendum question on defence spending. He said that the arms-procurement plan and the referendum are different issues. The referendum question, he said, deals with future defence reinforcement projects, while the US$15.1 billion arms-procurement refers to a specific plan by the Defence Ministry.