Europe's big airlines are hoping for a soft landing in the coming economic downturn. But for the no-frills airlines like Ireland's Ryanair or London-based Easy-Jet, a little economic turbulence may even come as something of a lift. Hard times make cheap flights seem more attractive.
In Zurich, Brussels - even in Frankfurt, if the rumours are true - big airlines are in trouble.
Swissair's parent group, SAir, has a debt problem. Sabena makes survival-threatening losses, and, according to the German Financial Times, Lufthansa is facing a massive drop in profits next year. The company has denied it, but the newspaper cites an internal company report predicting that operating profits will fall from 1.04 billion euros (about HK$7.24 billion) in 2000 to 650 million euros this year.
Yet the cheapies are soaring. They already have a 4 per cent share of the world passenger market, with 19 million passengers last year. Some estimates expect the figure to continue rising steeply to reach 10 per cent, or 45 million passengers, by 2005.
Cheap flights are so attractive they can claim to be adding to the overall air-fares cake rather than simply skimming off passengers from more expensive airlines.
One telling statistic serves to illustrate what happens when people who previously stayed at home or took a cheap package holiday somewhere are offered a discount fare. Between 1993 and 1997, the number of passengers flying from London to Venice rose from 300,000 to 350,000 a year. In the three years since an Irish no-frills operation, Ryanair, joined the competition on the route, the number has risen to more than 750,000.
