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William Barnes

Gem and property dealer Chaipan Thanapiwat could be the first victim of Thailand's apparent recovery.

 He was murdered at the wheel of his car by gunmen late on Thursday in what police believe was a dispute over unpaid debts.

 His was a thoroughly modern Bangkok death.

 Chaipan had been successfully outrunning his pursuers in his Jeep Cherokee until he became stuck in heavy traffic at the Premier intersection in Suan Luang, eastern Bangkok.

 Just three months ago he may have had more luck and sailed through the crossing.

 The return of fearsome late-night traffic jams are, after all, one of a string of visible signs supporting economic statistics that suggest Thailand is firmly bouncing back.

 News of recovering export, manufacturing and private investment sectors are matched by a quiet sense of confidence across Bangkok after two years of crisis. Unemployment is easing, school enrolments are better than expected and car sales - a key indicator for the hard-hit middle classes - are surging.

 Figures out yesterday show sales of new cars in May were up 42.8 per cent on May last year's total and 9.3 per cent higher than last month.

 Swank eateries are packed once again with crowds guzzling heavily taxed red wine - a recession no-no.

 At the weekend, a government auction of golf and country-club memberships, property and cars repossessed from a shattered finance sector at the heart of the meltdown saw far more heated bidding than expected.

 Some lots went for 10 times their reserve.

  Among the minimum-wage workers, spirits are lifting too as the economy re-bounds from a contraction of eight per cent last year to one per cent growth this year.

 At Bangkok railway station on Monday, single labourer Sombat Kroonpaet, 30, picked up a bag and stepped off the night train from the poor northeast confident of finding work in the capital once more.

 'Everyone back home is talking about trying their luck in Bangkok again. The worst is over - that's what everyone is saying. If it is, I'm sure I'll be all right and can start planning for a family,' he said.

 'Working in the city is hard but it is still better than the country.'  But few Thais at any level seem to believe the real heady days of the early 1990s will ever return - something the more socially conscious are grateful for, pointing to social dislocation and environmental destruction.

 Others point to on-going problems. Amid the hype and hope there could be heart-break, they warn.

 A recent commentary by influential US economist Paul Krugman dampening expectations of a full regional recovery has been widely digested, while local sources involved in debt recovery and restructuring warn of months of possibly fruitless work ahead.

 'I know many wealthy people who openly brag they have no intention of paying their money back,' one Thai banker said. 'I watch them laugh at dinner parties. Little has changed, and I'm not sure what lessons have been learnt.

 'These people are not yet getting new loans but they are simply starting to spend money they have hidden away.

 'I worry terribly about what will happen when the banks start lending again.'  The opening of Thailand's first bankruptcy court on Friday is expected to give new legal teeth to the effort but, in the short term, will also ensure the bad-loan situation gets worse before it gets better.

 A latest commentary this week from Barclays Capital suggests non-performing loans could reach 60 per cent of all credits, while warning of a new slump as recent government stimulus measures ebb.

 Until banks have fully sorted out their problems, 'hints of recovery have very shaky foundations', it warns.



Economy bouncing back amid hopes and fears